Petrol Prices Expected to Decrease Significantly

International oil prices recently reached four-month lows, which may offer some relief for drivers in November, with preliminary data suggesting notable fuel price decreases ahead.

Unaudited figures from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) indicate potential petrol price reductions of about 48 cents for 95 Unleaded and 51 cents for 93 Unleaded.

Diesel is expected to experience more modest cuts, estimated at around 10 cents per litre for each grade.

Should current trends continue, as indicated by recent daily data, we could see decreases approaching 30 cents for diesel and 70 cents for petrol.

This significant over-recovery in fuel pricing is largely due to a stronger rand and declining international oil prices.

At the end of last week, the South African rand fell to a one-year low of R17.17 against the US dollar, and it is currently trading at R17.21.

The price of Brent Crude oil dropped below $65 per barrel on Monday, down from $70 since late September. Although prices saw a slight uptick on Monday, closing at $65.51 after OPEC+ announced a modest production increase, oil remains 6.5% lower than last week’s peak, suggesting a continuation of the current over-recovery is likely.

OPEC+ has been gradually raising output this year, following production cuts in the prior two years, which were initially scheduled to be phased out by September 2026, as reported by Euro News.

This year, South Africa has experienced relatively stable fuel prices, with petrol and diesel remaining at similar levels to those in January.

After a slight increase of eight cents per litre in October, 95 Unleaded now costs R20.84 at the coast and R21.63 in Gauteng. Meanwhile, 93 Unleaded, which saw a one-cent rise this month, is priced at R21.48.

Diesel experienced minor decreases in October, with 500ppm dropping by 10 cents and 50ppm by eight cents, resulting in a wholesale price of R18.63 at the coast and R19.39 inland.